The French presidential candidate’s chances and the market expectations



The Sunday before the election last presidential candidate debate, the candidates, Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, again could present their programs, and the market also reacted to the debate outcome. Basically, they consider investors to Macron, the chances are, and this is strengthened in Wednesday’s tv debate. The discussion’s main points were the following:

The existing system is critical

This theme was the Front National leader Le Penn on the strength of. Emmanuel Macron, the existing system is critical as a candidate started, but Le Pen has reminded that since 2012, actively participated in the current president, François Hollande economic measures of development and implementation.

Le Pen during the debate on the continuous expressions used (for example, the minister called on his opponent, and “your government” clause was used), which refer to a Macron, the Hollande government is linked to the relationship – this relationship tried the fish also to indoctrinate.

Economic programs

Around the world there are two basic views in conflict, on one side of the protectionist, while on the other, the regulated globalisation (keynesian economics) believers. The economic issues are usually Down to Pen a weak point of the matter, however, in the debate he managed to make himself the family values from the seniors help and the globalisation victims supporting as a candidate set – all of this is to propose a concrete solution is not given to solving the problems.

Down Penn, however, managed to macron, a greedy banker, as indicated by the comment with, “in the society, for which you are campaigning, everything is for sale”. Le Pen in this direction stand up is a lot of choice for change make you sympathetic. Macron rational arguments will not convince the average voters – at least not in this election cycle.

Security policy and migration issues

This topic would have been, where Penn shine he should have, but the performance was not at all convincing. Surprisingly, Macron, expected a much stronger performance in this area.

The European Union and the French exit questions

Fairly simple Le Pen is a controversial French exit plans of decision – the exit of depreciation, higher import inflation levels and lower purchasing power, would result in, especially in the society poorer parts of europe. The debate at this stage of Le Pen doesn’t seem at all sure of himself, and he couldn’t properly express the recently proposed kétdevizás system details. This question allows you to rotate Down death from above 60 years of age voters, whereas the older citizens tend to fear the euro zone exit possibility.

Overall, the Macron, did better in the debate, and pinned, in accordance with the market not at all worried about the election outcome. The French government bonds German government bonds as compared to szpredje significantly reduced before the first round of 70 basis points, the CAC 40 volatility index and 19 percent in the first round prior to 27 percent level.

(source: Christopher Demby, Saxo Bank)



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