DAX-analysis v.16 ”DAX shows short-term strength in a downward trend…”

The German DAX index gained last week, short-term buy signals and short the trend is also upwards. The index, however, is more long-term speaking, remains in a downward trend and there are strong resistance levels already at about 12 600-12 660 and in the range of about 12 700-13 000. Therefore, the risk is significant that this rise unfortunately only a short-term upward rebound that will soon peter out. Would the DAX in a later stage, also to establish itself in the important intensities at about 11 730-11 800 obtained new strong sell signals.

The German stock exchange had last week an upward trend. The German storbolagsindexet DAX was up 1.6 per cent and ended the week at 12 442,40. The decline this year has thus shrunk to -3,7%.

During the week it came different information about the handelskonflikten between the united states and China that affected the international stock market situation and thus also the German. Also tensions around the conflict in Syria created some anxiety. But, at the margin, was excess weight in the news this week in the positive direction.

It came namely encouraging signals from China regarding handelskonflikten and from the united states of AMERICA on a permanent european exception from the new american steel and aluminiumtullarna.

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But there is also a cautious attitude on the German stock exchange before the reporting period that soon starts in earnest. The economic situation looks strong out and corporate profits should be rising. But will the listed companies to be able to answer up to investor expectations? And what dare management say about the future?

The long trend for the DAX-index is, however, despite last week’s rise, is still downward. The important 40-week medeltalskurva leans down, the index is also well below the same and have also started to show up a long-term pattern of progressively lower and lower tops and bottoms.

The DAX index has, however, the past two months, according to the veckodiagrammets stochasticindikator been oversold. Now, this indicator started to turn up indicating it may be time for a a bit greater upward rebound in the downward trend. However, we must see whether this rebound will have the power to seriously challenge the strong resistance levels at around 12 700-13 000.

However, should the DAX under a relatively high börsaktivitet succeed in establishing itself over these resistance levels are obtained in the long-term interesting buy signals. But it is, unfortunately, in the early days of the direction that this uppgångsfas not really going to succeed with it.

Our huvudhypotes is as soon as possible to the DAX when this upward rebound well, or later in the new will follow the long-term trend is down, and then also risk to establish themselves under the strong support area at about 11 730-11 800.

In the shorter term day chart, however, we see that the DAX got short-term buy signals, but also in this time horizon, the index stochasticindikator has already become overbought. So it can be a challenge for the DAX already to get past the strong motståndsområden which is located at about 12 600-12 660.

If the DAX would turn down is obtained in the day chart short-term sell signals if the intensity of about 12 150 broken.

In the even shorter term timdiagrammet is DAX-the index in an upward trend. New short-term buy signals is obtained if the resistance at about 12 524 to be crossed.

The trend is broken and the index will get a short-term sell signal if the aid is just over 12 400 broken. Underneath, there are then interesting support levels at about 12 to 250, and about 12 200.

Short-term-oriented actors can, therefore, tentatively assigned to buy for the rise in the vicinity of the support level just over 12 400. Aim for a rise to, first and foremost, about 12 520 ago to about 12 600-12 660. Stop loss just below 12 400.

Would the support of about 12 400 broken, you can instead aim for a decline to about 12 200-12 250, and then to about 11 800. Stop loss example, if the DAX goes over 12 450. Then move down the stop loss as the index goes down.

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For more long-term oriented investors, we recommend great caution with the positions of the rise so long as no new long-term strong buy signals obtained. Before its look, the risk level, namely high. This then DAX earlier in the year have got long-term sell signals, and then the longer trends in a clear way, unfortunately, has begun to turn down.

Preferably , one uses, therefore, all of the upward recoils to sell of any remaining stock and indexinnehav. Wait then also time with the new purchase until the DAX-index in a relatively high stock market turnover has a strong and clear buy signals.

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