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The National Collegiate Athletic Association basketball tournament begins Thursday,
so it's time for bracket pools.
Yet most people approach their bracket picks in a flawed way, and these errors are much like those amateurs and professionals make in investment decisions.
Only upset picks matter.
If you make too few of these, you're unlikely to win the pool even if you all your choices are correct. If you make too many
picks, you're unlikely even to have more upset wins than losses. The key is picking the right number.
Many bracket pool participants try to guess which teams are likely to win. This method doesn't help much.
It's possible that by searching through all the games an expert handicapper could increase the chances of winning by 10 percent or 20 percent, not much more.