When Nordea now decided to move to Finland from Sweden is more clarity regarding the impact on the nordic storbankens capital position of the parts as now to be pursued.
It is highlighted in the analytikerkommentarer as the News agency Directly taken part of since it in onsdagseftermiddagens message from the bank called that ”it is too early to say how the overall capital requirements for the Group are affected”.
”The confirmation of a domicilförändring offers positive elements in the longer term relating to regleringsförutsägbarhet and possible kapitalutskiftningar. In the short-term upside limited in anticipation of clarity over capital requirements and possible costs, as a result of the move,” writes Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley points out at the same time that Nordea previously indicated that the costs associated with the move will only be a small part of the € 70 million as the change of the legal structure of the Swedish cost.
Credit Suisse points out that Nordea’s internal models must be approved by the ECB after a move, not counting any long period of time – several years – with supervision.
”A faster validation would be positive for investors as it reduces the uncertainty surrounding the description of the capital position,” writes Credit Suisse, which estimates that the move to Finland can free up at least 100 basis points in kärnprimärkapitalet, corresponding to 3% of the market value.
Credit Suisse assume that the market was ”positioned for a decision to change residence to Finland”.
To Ritzau Finans ” says Mikkel Emil Jensen at Sydbank that it can not be expected any significant changes in estimates as a result of the move.
”Most of them had actually assumed that the bank in one way or another would avoid the increased costs. It was not the cost increases that were included in the market”, considers he.
Nordea’s assessment is that the present value of the resolutionsavgifter, deposit guarantee schemes and other transition rules is positive, with around 1,000 to 1,100 million euros as a result of the move.
”It accounts for 2 percent of the market value. Even if the market sees the move as a positive step is regleringslandskapet unclear until further notice. Hence, it is of potential value not yet set”, believe KBW.
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