Valutabrevet v.37 ”the U.S. dollar in the short-term stabilization. Bitcoin has received a sell signal…”

The u.s. dollar has in the last week, have stabilised somewhat and rekylerat up relative to most other currencies. The dollar has been greatly oversold and it is now for the moment more riskgillande market sentiment favors the dollar. The long trend is, however, down for the dollar. So sooner or later there is a great risk that the dollar will weaken. Against the Swedish krona, the u.s. dollar has an important support level at about 7,9 ce Kryptovalutan bitcoin has, however, had clear sell signals after data on new trade restrictions in China.

The currency markets have as well as the other financial markets in the last week has arrived in a slightly more risk-taking mood. Before it was the risk-off due to north korea’s test, the risk of a subsequent trade war between the united states and the countries that continued to trade with north Korea, the approaching hurricane Irma of Florida, and so on.

Then, when north Korea declined from an expected test last weekend, Irma did not cause as much damage as expected and no great evil nor happened was the financial markets more likely to take the risk. In this risk-on climate, the u.s. dollar has strengthened.

In addition, as was raised at the end of last week, the u.s. debt ceiling. It has also helped to strengthen the dollar.

Otherwise, the strengthened first, the euro against the dollar after comments from ECB in connection with last Thursday’s interest rate announcement. Then, the ECB governing their growth forecasts and hinted at the same time to answer regarding the QE program’s future probably will after their October meeting.

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But the theme thus has otherwise been to the dollar, against most other currencies is in the long-term falling trends, in the short term strengthened in the last few days.

The long trend of the euro priced in dollars is, for example, continues to rise. The euro, earlier this year scored a number of long-term important buy signals and then also broken out of a large bottenformation. In the long perspective, therefore, the euro is out to be able to go up to at least motståndsområdena around about 1.26 and about 1,29. Long-term important support levels are at around 1.17, and about 1,14.

In the shorter term day chart , we see that the upward trend of the euro is unbroken in spite of the last days of the recoils. The euro may, however, short-term sell signals on the supports at about 1,1823 and about 1,1666 broken. New buy signals are obtained if the euro establishes itself above the resistance at about 1,2091.

Zooms the we out even more we see in the timdiagrammet to the euro, however, seriously begun to challenge the upward trend. In this brief perspective, a sell signal is obtained when the guides at about 1,197 and about 1,1922 was broken.


Also vis-à-vis the Swedish crown has the dollar earlier in the year scored a number of long-term major sell signals. After a sharp decline, since the decline in the dollar has stalled right at the strong support area around 7,9-8,0 sek.

From here, the dollar now to choose the path. To the get new strong sell signals through to establish itself in the support at about 7,9? In that case there is the next long-term interesting support area at about 6,8-7,0 ce Or should the dollar begin a strong rise to the top and test the strong resistance levels at approx 8,6-8,9?

The dollar, however, has been so oversold that we in the previous analyses highlighted that regardless of which way the dollar to the end select, so it is natural that the first makes a rebound up. We have now also seen that the dollar in the short term stabilised and trying to make a little upward recoils.

Now, however, begins to stochasticindikatorn in the day to turn clear up. It indicates that the dollar is so oversold any longer. Soon to be, thus, the situation is significantly more sensitive for the dollar. Will be the dollar overbought, any negative news to affect the dollar much easier than otherwise.

The dollar gets short-term buy signals on the resistors at about 8,08 and about 8,23 broken. But would instead of the dollar to establish itself in the support at about 7,89 get the dollar strong sell signals.


The English pound relative to the u.s. dollar has now started to come up to the exciting resistance levels at about 1,34-1,35. Establishes the pound above the resistance at about 1.35 for may, the pound in the long-term strong buy signals. In this case, we aim at gains which in time should bring the pound up to the resistance levels at about 1,48-1,50 dollars. Important support levels are located at approximately 1,28 and about 1,19 dollars.


Kryptovalutan bitcoin has in the last week is facing a problem. China plans according to the task to tighten the trade and to close the domestic trading platforms for bitcoin.

Even more capitalist representatives have lately given on this kryptovaluta. The ceo of JP Morgan Chase has called bitcoin ”scam” and ”worse than a tulpanbubbla”. It must according to him can only be good ”for the murderer and drug dealer”. He threatens that if any of his employees, deals with bitcoin, they should be kicked out.

So no wonder that bitcoin rekylerat down a lot the last few days. But such expressiveness and regleringsförsök has been quite common in the kryptovalutans history. Boom and burst. Bitcoin has, however, also an eloquent advocate and serious user. And so far bitcoinen always come again after such attacks.

In the technical analysis , however, has bitcoin been sell signals. We can see it in the chart for the bitcointrackern Bitcoin Tracker One, or BITCOIN XBT. The shadow value of bitcoin and traded in Swedish kronor.

The tracker got a sell signal is generated when the support at approximately sek 167 was broken. Now is the tracker just below support at about 150 ce, So now we have our sights set on a test of next support level at about 130 ce Signal is obtained if the tracker can establish themselves across the resistors at approximately sek 168 and about 198 b.c.