Weekly newsletter v.11 ”A market full of contradictions…”

Nor do the previous week, we left with a clear, clear and distinct projections, then the Swedish stock market was unclear and svårprognosticerad. With regard to the ongoing sektorrotationen from cyclical to defensive and that the imminent utdelningssäsongen could create buying interest, however, we were slightly more positive than in the past even if we chose to be cautious, enjoyed to have decent liquidity and was not keen to act offensively on the purchase page.

Sweden OMXS30

This week we will point with his whole hand. There is definitely no panikstämning on the world’s exchanges, but at the same time, there is an underlying nervousness among the investor community, where nobody wants to be sitting with ”Svarte Petter”, and in retrospect get the confirm that you waiting too long to sell even though they had plenty of time to act.

The u.s. stock markets have been strong for so long and persistently defied all the doomsday prophecies that it at the same time with the fear of a declining stock market is a clear concern to reduce their börsexponering and be beaten on the confection of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq stubbornly continues to trenda up.

The Nasdaq

It sounds contradictory? Yes, it is exactly what it is. Investors are scared to suffer, an unpleasant and sharp nedgångsfas at the same time as they do not want to get the experience that they are sports cars on the upside. The situation will become clearer, but it may take time before the longer-term direction of travel is clear.

Let us make a brief study of the psychological dynamics that develop in the current svårprognosticerade location:

A person can feel intense joy when the price moves in the right direction and expectantly await the next movement of the market. The person can also feel angry, depressed and nervous when the development will not be as supposed, and are anxiously monitoring what the market will do the closest. The more emotional he or she gets – excited and enthusiastic or stressed and pressured – the easier it is for him or her to lose their independence and do as all the others, i.e. follow the leader of the pack.

Unlike other groups can herd behavior in financial markets, be inferred from the study of the variables price and volume trend. They show the power and strength. Hundreds of thousands of investors constantly follow the evolution of the price of the stock market (index) or individual shares behave and a price trend which is moving clearly in one direction, fills the function as pack leader.

It should be emphasized that the herd behavior in the financial markets occurs in emotionally charged situations, i.e., when it occurs, the sharp price fluctuations that makes people either excited or panicky. An accelerating price movement in the final phase of a longer negative or a positive trend or a clear outbreak upwards or downwards from a long-term interval are effective catalysts for herd behavior. This behavior has certainly not decreased but rather increased highly significantly in today’s global, information-intensive, and easily accessible markets.


The situation on the financial markets is now such that it creates a significant uncertainty about the future development and location of the hotel is difficult to interpret:

  • The economy is strong, but keeps it to top out and will the stock market start to turn down when the figures are the most positive?
  • Verkstadsbolagen have been radiant at the same time as the more defensive shares forming bottenfaser and look all the more interesting.
  • The american långräntan has begun trenda up at the same time as the Euro seems to gather the strength for further rise against the dollar.
  • The u.s. growth impresses at the same time, in the field of classical president all the more clearly shows its maktfullkomligt and fickleness
  • The S&P 500 is near its historical toppkurser at the same time as the gold (that goes best when stock prices fall) is in a long-term bottenfas and start to see köpvärt out.
  • Europe’s locomotive, Germany has lost over 10 % since the end of January, while the Nasdaq has reached ”all time high”.
  • Hong Kong shows the strength while börstrenderna in China and India show signs of slowing down.


Börsläget is thus obviously difficult to interpret, and we choose to continue to have a cautious approach to the stock market, then we fear that a toppformation is in course of formation, but this can take a long time to färdigformeras. As before, we think that the broad index funds is the melody on the Swedish stock exchange, but there are affordable individual companies, not least when utdelningssäsongen soon facing the door.

In the current börsläge learn the selection of individual stocks to determine if you will get a decent return on his portfolio and we like to have decent liquidity, and not be eager to act aggressively on the purchase page.